IR Honors Students

Title: Taiwanese American Storytelling and the “China Threat”

Thesis Advisor: Professor Gi-Wook Shin

Abstract: In the last century, the people of Taiwan have faced threat and oppression from two entities claiming to be “China”: first Chiang Kai-Shek’s Kuomintang dictatorship, which imposed almost 40 years of martial law on Taiwan, and now the People’s Republic of China, which has declared increasingly expansionist territorial ambitions for “reclaiming” Taiwan. Throughout this period, Taiwanese migrants who settled in the United States have passed on intergenerational stories, shaped by both their past in Taiwan and their new life in the United States, about the “China threat”. 

This thesis seeks to answer two major questions. Firstly, how is threat perception of China and Taiwanese identity interconnected for Taiwanese Americans? Secondly, how do Taiwanese American families remember and pass on stories of China from one generation to the next in an American context? This paper proposes a theoretical model in which intergenerational storytelling about China increases threat perception of China, which subsequently increases both attachment to the Taiwanese identity and expression of anti-China behaviors.  

I conducted an original survey (N=452), which provides empirical evidence for each claim in the theoretical model. Additionally, 15 in-depth interviews with selected survey respondents provided supplementary narrative detail about how both intergenerational stories from Taiwan’s Martial Law Period and living in an American cultural and political landscape shape the way Taiwanese Americans perceive China as a threat.

Title: The Social Positioning of African Americans: A Comparative Study Between France and the United States

Thesis Advisor: Dr. Vasiliki Fouka

Abstract: African Americans have long faced racism in the United States, but less is known about how they are perceived outside the country. This study explores how people in the United States and France view African Americans and asks: Where do African Americans sit on the racial hierarchies of these two nations? To answer this question, two conjoint surveys were conducted, one in each country. In both, respondents were shown different fictional profiles and asked to choose who they would prefer as a neighbor or to whom they would give financial help. Each profile varied by race, nationality, gender, income, and language ability, allowing the study to examine which traits mattered most in each country.

The survey results suggest that African Americans sit in the middle of the racial hierarchy in France and at the top of the racial hierarchy in the U.S. In France, African Americans were met with general indifference. They were viewed more favorably than Senegalese Black individuals and North African Arabs, but less positively than White French and White Americans. In the United States, African American profiles were rated more positively than any other group, including White Americans. This may reflect the sample’s urban skew or social pressure to respond favorably. Support was especially strong among urban respondents and those with African American friends.

Overall, the study offers new insights into how African Americans are viewed globally. The findings show that race and nationality both shape how people are treated, and that being American can provide a small advantage to African Americans in some international contexts. These results are useful for programs focused on cultural exchange and global inclusion, and they challenge the idea that skin color alone determines how people are seen across borders.

Title: From Nyerere to Magufuli: Chinese Promises & The Politics of Development in Tanzania

Thesis Advisors: Professor Larry Diamond

Abstract: Sub-Saharan Africa has experienced a surge in Chinese investment since 2013, garnering substantial attention in both the academic literature and mainstream media. While greater capital inflows are critical to infrastructure development across the sub-continent, pessimists argue that these partnerships undermine the Western-led development aid landscape that has historically prioritized democratic reforms. I investigate this phenomenon by focusing on Tanzania, a country with particularly complex historical ties to both China and the West. My thesis explores how foreign economic dependency has shaped Tanzania’s development politics and, in turn, impacted the prospects for democratization. The thesis begins with a historical review of Tanzania’s development and international relations. Next, I conduct comparative sentiment analysis on two of the nation's leading newspapers: the state-owned The Daily News (Habari Leo) and the privately-owned The Citizen (Mwananchi). Finally, I analyze trends in local public opinion as captured by Afrobarometer survey data. My findings illustrate government bias in media coverage of politically sensitive topics, and counterintuitive trends in local perceptions of Tanzania’s democracy. I argue that Chinese promises of an alternative development partnership contributed to a democratic backsliding marked by the ascent of the populist Magufuli regime in 2015. More broadly, the thesis highlights that foreign economic presence carries profound institutional consequences for developing economies, a dynamic of increasing relevance within the escalating climate of global great-power competition. 

Title:  Outsmarting Isolation: North Korea’s Cyber Evolution and the Role of AI in Digital Aggression

Thesis Advisor: Professor Dafna Zur

Abstract: This thesis investigates the evolution of North Korea’s cyber activities between 2009 and 2024, emphasizing the emerging role of artificial intelligence (AI) in cyber warfare. Motivated by the paradox of a resource-constrained and diplomatically isolated state wielding disproportionate cyber influence, the study employs a comprehensive, three-pronged methodological framework integrating: (1) a longitudinal timeline analysis, (2) in-depth qualitative case studies, and (3) a quantitative experiment leveraging a large language model (LLM) to document the evolution of North Korea’s cyber activities and the impact of AI on North Korea’s capabilities. First, I assembled and analyzed a large dataset of reliably attributed North Korean cyber incidents from 2009 onwards to identify macro-level patterns and strategic shifts in the regime’s cyber operations. Second, three pivotal case studies - the 2009 DDoS attacks, the 2014 Sony Hack, and the 2020 COVID campaign - were selected to represent distinct evolutionary stages of North Korea’s cyber activity. These case studies were systematically analyzed through four key lenses: attack methods, targets and objectives, international responses, and implications for international law (IL). This approach provides a holistic understanding of each facet of North Korean attacks by highlighting advancements in technical sophistication, examining deeper motivations behind the attacks, and evaluating the applicability of IL, specifically through the lens of the Tallinn Manual, to identify gaps and opportunities over time. Parallel to this, a quantitative component employs OpenAI 4.1 large language model (LLM) to measure whether AI-generated phishing attacks outperform human-generated phishing.

Findings reveal a clear trajectory in North Korea’s cyber strategy over time, from initial rudimentary boundary-testing to increasingly sophisticated and coercive campaigns to financially motivated espionage. The quantitative analysis reveals the potential of AI to enhance the stealth and efficiency of phishing campaigns: AI-generated phishing attacks outperform human-generated emails by 14 percentage points. Ultimately, this thesis demonstrates how an increasingly emboldened North Korea and new AI-enabled tactics may change the global cybersecurity landscape, revealing the need for updated international legal frameworks, enhanced cyber education and defenses, and proactive policymaking to address the growing threat posed by North Korea’s AI-driven cyber operations.

Title: The Carbon Retirement Gap: Uncovering the Misalignment Between Supply and Demand in the Voluntary Carbon Market

Thesis Advisor: Professor Rob Dunbar

Abstract: Carbon credits are issued to offset emissions—but according to CarbonPlan data,  only 53.4% issued since 2004 have actually been retired. This striking gap between offset issuance and retirement raises a fundamental question: what drives demand in the voluntary carbon market (VCM)? Addressing this “retirement gap,” in a market shaped by price distortions and strategic behavior, requires a more nuanced proxy for demand. This thesis uses the ratio of issuances to retirements in place of price to analyze how project-level characteristics drive or impede credit utilization. Merging transaction and project-level data from CarbonPlan, this study applies logistic, fixed-effect panel, and beta regression models to analyze how project type, registry affiliation, geography, and vintage influence the likelihood and extent of credit demand by market participants.

The findings of these models challenge conventional assumptions about buyer preferences in the VCM (Blasch and Farsi 2014; Chen 2021). Project-level characteristics such as region, technology type, and registry affiliation show limited explanatory power in predicting demand patterns, suggesting that these attributes are not consistently prioritized by market participants when credits are retired. Instead, broader structural factors—such as local and international policy environments, regulatory uncertainty, shifts in the expectations of corporate climate action, and institutional timing strategies—appear to shape credit utilization more meaningfully. 

This thesis therefore suggests that the VCM does not function as a straightforward marketplace where project quality alone dictates demand. In doing so, these findings help characterize the persistent mismatch between issuance and retirement and reveal the limitations of using project attributes alone to predict market behavior, ultimately underscoring the need for stronger standards, clearer market signals, and more consistent oversight to ensure carbon offset markets are effective tools for climate mitigation.

Title:  Freeloader or Cautious Ally: Factors Influencing Taiwan’s Defense Spending

Thesis Advisors: Professor James Fearon and Dr. Kharis Templeman 

Abstract: Is Taiwan free riding off the United States military? U.S. President Donald Trump and many of his subordinate officials believe so, arguing that Taiwan is shirking the costs incurred by higher military spending due to assumed American support for the Indo-Pacific state’s defense against China (Bloomberg 2024). Such claims echo contemporary political science literature on international alliances, which suggests defensive alliances create collective action problems prompting some states to free ride off other states’ contributions (Olson & Zeckhauser 1966). I seek to answer whether Taiwan, at the domestic political level, is choosing to engage in such freeriding. I consult the results of the Institute for National Defense and Security Research surveys from 2024’s fall and winter quarters, plus the Taiwan National Security Studies 2024 survey, to test how Taiwanese citizens’ support for higher defense spending is influenced by three factors: the PRC threat, confidence in the military, and U.S. military support. I also conduct a qualitative analysis of Taiwan’s 2025 military budget and the political battles between Taiwanese parties on that legislation. My research finds that, contrary to the arguments of President Trump, Taiwanese voters are more likely to support increasing defense spending if they predict stronger U.S. military support. Taiwan’s current low military spending as a percentage of GDP is better explained by local disagreements regarding whether the PRC poses a security threat, and Taiwanese voters’ low confidence in their military. The Taiwanese citizenry’s preferences are heavily influenced by the ideologies of the dominant political parties; which party controls ROC government institutions likewise explains whether the annual defense budget is increased or decreased. According to these findings, a decline in America’s willingness to defend Taiwan would actually make Taiwan more likely to decrease military spending.

In the pursuit of a carbon-neutral economy, governments worldwide are embracing diverse policies to promote sustainable energy solutions. The European Union stands at the forefront of this effort, with countries adopting different approaches to solar photovoltaic (PV) governance to influence the trajectory of the market. How do different policy frameworks drive variation in solar PV capacity and market development across the European Union? Focusing on three pivotal case studies—Germany, Spain, and France—this thesis explores the intricacies of solar PV governance against the backdrop of shifting energy market landscapes from the early 2000s to 2015. The thesis contends that feed-in tariffs (FITs) emerge as a powerful policy instrument, particularly when addressing information asymmetry, fostering investment, and stimulating the early stages of market competition. Effective FITs offer regulators the flexibility to provide financial support while avoiding excessive policy costs, thereby facilitating sustainable proliferation of solar PV. However, once this energy source approaches grid parity, tendering schemes are preferable as they enable more efficient cost and quality control. By analyzing the nuances of solar PV policy design and its implications for market dynamics, these findings offer insights for future research and policymaking endeavors, contributing to the imperative transition towards renewable energy in Europe.

Thesis Advisor: Professor William Barnett

Thesis:

Blum, I. (2024). Powering Europe: A Comparison of Policies Promoting the Solar Photovoltaic Industry in Germany, Spain, and France

Stanford Digital Repository. Available HERE.

Rare Earth Metals, or Rare Earth Elements (REEs), are the fuel of the future—they are scarce inputs crucial to the clean energy transition. For this reason, it is widely assumed that China’s monopoly over REE production is detrimental to the United States’ long-term energy security. However, this hypothesis has not been adequately tested in the literature. This thesis aims to fill that gap by assessing the reliance of key U.S. clean energy industries on China’s REE supply chain. In the thesis, I use two REE price shocks—one that occurred during a 2010-2012 export cut and the other during the COVID pandemic—as a natural experiment. I study financial indicators of nine wind energy and electric vehicle (EV) companies operating in the US to understand how they reacted to the supply shocks. To constrain the extent of REE supply chain dis/advantages, I compare these results to the performance of wind energy and EV companies operating in China, as well as to non-EV companies which don’t use REE in large quantities. I find that neither wind energy nor EV company financials are significantly impacted by REE supply shocks, with the slight exception of Tesla. Tesla’s cost of revenues appeared particular affected by the 2010-2012 price shock. Tesla, in particular, reacted to the sensitivity by spending more on resilience strategies, like raw materials inventory stockpiling and research & development efforts. Though the perceived impact of REE price shocks is large within the political sphere, because the price shocks didn’t impact bottom line profitability, the shocks were not perceived to be impactful by public markets: changes in these US wind and EV companies’ stock prices are uncorrelated to REE price shocks. This implies that REE supply chains receive outsized political attention relative to the economic role they play, though open questions remain about the extent of our future consumption of REEs.

Thesis Advisor: Professor Jean Oi

Thesis:

Bradley, K. (2024). Conflict over the “Commanding Heights:” Gauging Impacts of China's Rare Earths Monopoly on U.S. Energy Security

Stanford Digital Repository. Available HERE.

To what extent did the anti-gender Movement’s narrative of “gender ideology” impact the Colombian peace accord plebiscite in 2016?  The 2016 plebiscite asked Colombians to decide whether or not to accept the peace accord between the government and the guerilla group FARC-EP.  The peace accord vote was quite close, but ultimately failed, with 50.2% voting ‘No.’ Previous studies have cited the “gender ideology” narrative as a factor that created opposition to the accord, including how Pentecostal church leaders of the ‘No’ campaign argued that “the agreements put Colombia at risk of ‘homosexual colonization.’” (Beltran and Creely 2016) That said, more research is needed to understand why and how this narrative gained traction. Thus, this thesis seeks to answer the question: How did the narratives surrounding “gender ideology” and the Colombian peace accord shape the discussions about the intended purpose and impact of the accord, and ultimately impact their decision in the peace accord plebiscite? To answer this question, I conducted 29 in-depth interviews with members of different political parties in Colombia during the summer of 2023, and also conducted a survey experiment with 862 Colombian respondents during the spring of 2024. The interview data is analyzed in two passes, using both deductive and inductive codes, supported by analytic memos and prepositions. The survey used a set of vignette experiments to identify the impact of language related to gender identity, sexual orientation or the LGBT community on political approval decisions. These methods provide insight into which narratives were most prevalent with regard to “gender ideology,” why they garnered opposition, and how they shaped the perception of the accord. I argue that the “gender ideology” narratives became part of the vision of the future for a post-conflict Colombia that, when put in combination with the fear of the rise of the FARC as a political party, and grievances about impunity, mobilized ‘No’ voters against the accord. This study will contribute to a growing body of research on the strategies and impact of the anti-gender movement, as well as how and why their narratives have been able to gain traction in political decisions.

Thesis Advisors: Professor Beatriz Magaloni and Professor Anna Gryzmala-Busse

Thesis:

Calero Forero, I. (2024). “No a la destrucción de la familia”: “Gender Ideology” Narratives and the Colombian Peace Accord Plebiscite

Stanford Digital Repository. Available HERE.

In 2022, $210.6 billion was donated as official development assistance through bilateral or multilateral channels. Yet this development aid has been notoriously ineffective. While many development scholars have investigated this problem through data analysis and case studies, there has been little to no consensus on what makes development projects fail. This thesis probes whether governance data about aid recipient countries could help make that aid more effective.    

The rise of machine learning has provided new tools to find patterns between successes and failures within development projects. In this thesis, using machine learning and an experimental survey against human judgment, I built a model to predict the performance of development projects. I used project information spanning over 60 years combined with governance indices spanning from public sector performance to the rule of law to understand whether project characteristics, governance levels, or both influence the performance of development projects. I found that a model that incorporates governance indicators can predict project performance significantly more accurately compared to a model that does not incorporate governance measures, demonstrating the difference a holistic understanding of governance can make for projecting development outcomes. 

This rudimentary predictive modeling exercise shows that machine learning can point out patterns of success and failure among a vast corpus of development projects, pointing out policy and project design levers that can prove useful to development professionals as aid is modernized. Ultimately, this thesis shows how these new data science tools can be translated into meaningful contributions to development policy.

Thesis Advisors: Professor Adam Bonica and Professor Jeremy Weinstein

Thesis:

Ersoz, I. (2024). Development Through the Looking Glass: Predictive Modeling Development Project Performance

Stanford Digital Repository. Available HERE.